“First segment opened, it's not meeting expectations, why would you quadruple down on the expense? ... Just because we've moved some ground doesn't mean it can't stop.” — Thunder ParleyVTA defends its plan to extend BART to downtown San Jose →
A higher sales tax, locked in for 14 years.
This November, voters in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties will be asked to raise the sales tax to bail out Bay Area transit. The rate would increase by 1% in San Francisco and by 0.5% in the other four counties. This tax would last for 14 years. Before we lock in roughly a billion dollars a year, the agencies should fix what is broken.
What it does to your sales tax
The biggest cities, before and after the transit tax:
| City | Now | After |
|---|---|---|
| Hayward | 10.75% | 11.25% |
| Oakland | 10.75% | 11.25% |
| Berkeley* | 10.25% | 11.25% |
| Fremont | 10.25% | 10.75% |
| San Jose | 10.00% | 10.50% |
| Richmond | 9.75% | 10.25% |
| San Francisco | 8.625% | 9.625% |
*Includes additional local sales tax measure
Updates & News
“The Bay Area ‘transit industrial complex’ is once again demanding more money from hard pressed consumers... lifting the total tax take to as high as 11.25%... Even MTC's own benefit-cost analysis assigns it less than 50 cents of estimated benefits for every dollar spent.”Joffe: Vote 'no' on Regional Transit Measure. It will burden Bay Area's poorest and isn't needed to 'save transit' →
“The simplest fix would be to temporarily divert money now earmarked for California's woebegone high-speed rail project to Bay Area transit operations... Rather than wait out the federal government, VTA should cancel or truncate this project.”Yes, we can save transit with capital funds →
“Locking in new sales taxes for 14 years will only exacerbate the Bay Area's cost-of-living crisis without forcing transit agencies to rein in runaway operating expenses.”Public transit funding on the upcoming ballot →
“The proposed 14-year, $1.2 billion-per-year sales tax under SB 63 / Measure RTM locks in bloated cost structures, high compensation, and skyrocketing operating subsidies for agencies whose ridership remains 30% below pre-pandemic levels.”Bay Area transit tax would lock in flawed spending system for decades →
“Proponents know voters are fed up. That is why they snaked this measure onto the ballot as a citizen initiative to exploit a legal loophole, deliberately evading the traditional two-thirds voter approval required for special taxes... We cannot continue acting as an endless bailout ATM for transit agencies that refuse to reform.”The Bay Area transit tax is a massive national outlier →
“[The ballot question uses] manipulative framing—such as asserting the measure will ‘prevent major service cuts’ and ‘preserve BART’—instead of offering voters neutral ballot language.”Bay Area tax measures to bail out transit agencies faces lawsuit over 'misleading' ballot language →
“Transit officials violated California Elections Code by replacing neutral language with persuasive polling-tested rhetoric... extracting upwards of $17 billion under the guise of an emergency bailout.”Voters Sue to Strip “Campaign Slogans” From the Ballot Question for a $17 Billion Transit Sales Tax →
“Even the VTA board subcommittees are realizing that VTA needs to get way more serious about responding to withering critiques of the disgraced South Bay agency (often characterized as the ‘worst-performing agency in the country’) by a Civil Grand Jury.”Lawsuit and growing opposition starting to derail Bay Area transit bailout →
“Supporters of the Transit Measure need to use misleading advertising because voters won't pass the measure if they have the real story that it is a regressive tax falling hardest on seniors and low-income families for 14 years.” — Gregg DieguezCoalition opposing November Bay Area transit tax files lawsuit claiming bias in ballot language, impartial analysis →
“The (VTA board of directors) has recognized the need for additional oversight and guidance, but the board has failed to exercise its obligation to provide the strategic direction needed for a successful project,” the report reads.Civil Grand Jury raises concerns over Silicon Valley BART extension →
“'Preserving BART' implies that it's at risk in some way, whereas funding it implies what it is, giving it more money to continue to operate... The committee argues that transit operators could utilize existing capital funds to cover operating costs, reduce overtime pay or evaluate contracts with labor unions.” — Gregg DieguezBay Area Group Files Lawsuit Against Transit Funding Measure, Says It's 'Deceptive' →
“We are being asked to hand a blank check bailout to agencies that have already received over $6 billion in pandemic aid over the last six years and are still staring down nearly a billion dollars in annual structural deficits... Together, we must demand Fixes Before Funding.” — Thunder ParleyCalifornia Ballot Measures: Voter ID initiative and the Bay Area Transit Sales Tax →
“Voters are experiencing deep fatigue over stacked taxes while transit boards refuse to touch administrative overhead or hold management accountable.” — Debora AllenTransit agencies' Hail Mary faces skeptics and tax-weary voters →
“Media narratives framing opposition as ‘trying to kill transit’ ignore that working families are being asked to subsidize agencies that refuse to balance their budgets or adapt to remote work.”How SF Standard's coverage of transit tax embodies the most lame kind of media bias →
“When the overwhelming share of every operating dollar at these agencies goes to labor rather than fares — including roughly a dozen employees earning more than $500,000 a year — voters deserve a clear answer about what exactly their next dollar is buying.”The long, sad history of misguided transit taxation in Santa Clara County →
“The measure will push sales tax rates above 11% in several Bay Area cities to subsidize agencies that already take in $6 billion annually, all under unenforceable, non-binding oversight mechanisms.”Five-County Coalition Launches Campaign Against $14 Billion + Bay Area Transit Tax →
“Let's stop spending huge amounts of money on planning and constructing very stupid mega projects without a purpose and use that money for other purposes, such as operating what we have now.” — Tom RubinOpposition Group Says Bay Area Transit Doesn't Deserve More Money This November →
“The sales tax is inherently regressive and disproportionately burdens lower-income residents to subsidize higher-income commuters on systems like Caltrain and BART, while transit boards refuse to negotiate union labor reforms.”SJ Merc pushes a “14-year” sales tax to save transit. Expert says that's “misleading” →
“VTA does not face large, near-term operating deficits... Measure RTM functions as an unnecessary burden on Santa Clara County that acts as an indirect bailout for BART extension construction overruns.” — Marc JoffeVTA doesn't really need a bailout →
“The VTA Board failed in its fiduciary oversight of the BART Phase II extension — whose estimated costs surged from $4.7 billion to $12.75 billion with opening pushed to 2037 — while ridership on Phase I remains 86% below initial projections.”Civil grand jury says VTA failed to manage nearly $13 billion San Jose BART extension →
“For January 2026, ridership was 86% below estimates... VTA's cost-estimation practices, along with its lack of transparency around changes to project scope and cost, were identified as significant deficiencies... the board has failed to exercise its obligation to provide the strategic direction needed for a successful project.”VTA's Management and Oversight of BART Silicon Valley Phase II (Official Report) →
“Bay Area consumers are already squeezed by high taxes and inflation; tacking on another multi-billion-dollar sales tax hike to bail out struggling agencies is unsustainable.”Regional transit tax measure receives enough signatures to make November ballot →
“A 60% surge in labor expenses with a 60% collapse in ridership between 2014 and 2024... Rigid collective bargaining agreements prevent the agency from restructuring operating costs, pushing it into an ongoing financial death spiral.”Preparing for the last federal transportation reauthorization bill (Special: 'BART's Last Days?') →
“Watchdogs and critics characterized the plan as a high-pressure political tactic to coerce voter approval of new taxes.”BART Board votes 8-1 to close up to 15 stations if proposed Nov. tax measure fails →
“Inflation-adjusted transit spending has doubled since 1980 despite flat or declining transit ridership... Voters must demand work-rule reforms and contracting flexibility before any new tax revenue is authorized.”Opinion: looming Bay Area sales tax hike ignores massive overspending on transit →
“California voters aren't choosing between SB 63 and ‘catastrophic cuts.’ They are choosing between continuing a spending model that has already failed or demanding accountability before approving another tax hike.”Op-ed: California's “Transit Industrial Complex” is back—and it's bankrolling SB 63 →
The cost-of-living hit comes first
The Bay Area already carries some of the highest sales taxes in California. Combined with other local sales tax measures on the ballot, Measure RTM would push eight Alameda County cities past 11% and drive Pacifica's rate to 11.375%. Sales tax is regressive and falls hardest on working families, renters and anyone living paycheck to paycheck. It taxes what you spend rather than what you earn and applies to major purchases like vehicles, bikes, clothes, meals and building supplies, driving rents up even further.
Your rate today
If all sales tax measures pass
What the measure actually does
The tax was authorized by SB 63 (Wiener, 2025), which lets a new Metropolitan Transportation Commission body, the Public Transit Revenue Measure District, place a 14-year sales tax before voters in five counties. The four northern counties, Marin, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma, opted out.
Roughly $1 billion a year, for 14 years
MTC projects about $1.05 billion annually based on 2027 to 2031 taxable sales. Over the full term that is more than $14 billion locked in, regardless of how transit performs.
It locks in a model that is obsolete
Fourteen years is a long time. Driverless trains and buses, services like Waymo and the permanent shift to remote and hybrid work are already reshaping how the Bay Area moves. This tax commits taxpayers to today's cost structure long after it stopped making sense.
Not enough to fix transit anyway
A billion a year does not close the gap. Bay Area transit already takes in roughly $6 billion a year in tax, toll and grant subsidies. This tax papers over the problem without fixing it.
A simple-majority loophole
Rather than having government place the measure on the ballot, which would require a two-thirds vote to pass, the district chose a citizens' initiative gathering signatures across five counties, which can pass with a simple majority.
Sacramento sets the formula, not your county
SB 63 writes fixed percentages into state law for how each county's sales tax is divided among BART, Muni, AC Transit, Caltrain and other operators. Only about a third returns to county agencies to spend at their discretion; the rest is locked to the largest and most troubled operators by a formula voters cannot change. Approving the tax gives your community no say over where its dollars go.
Promised fixes, no real reform
SB 63 includes language about reviews, reports and oversight, but none of it is binding. The agencies will continue ineffective business as usual while collecting the money.
The agencies have not earned another tax
Costs have soared, ridership has not recovered, and the region's signature projects have run badly over budget. The full record is on the next page.
BART operating subsidies, FY19 to FY26
BART's operating subsidy rose 257 percent, from $191 million in FY19 to $682 million in FY26, while operating costs rose 50 percent and service was cut.
See the full record →Cost per passenger trip
The inflation-adjusted cost of carrying one rider one trip averaged 507 percent of its 1980 level over 2020 to 2024, after peaking at 888 percent in 2021.
See the data →Ridership recovery
Regional ridership sat near 500 million trips a year from 1980 to 2019 while population grew 51 percent. It fell 75 percent in the pandemic and has recovered only to about 70 percent, leaving it roughly 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
See the trend →Top transit pay
In 2024 the highest-paid BART employee was a police officer at $661,388 in pay and benefits, including $272,534 in overtime, out-earning the General Manager. In all, 51 BART employees collected more than $400,000 in pay and benefits that year, 43 of them in the police department.
See who gets paid →Transit already gets $6.2 billion a year from taxes & tolls
Before the region asks for another billion dollars a year, look at what it already collects. In fiscal year 2024-25, the Bay Area's transit operators took in roughly $6 billion in tax, toll, and government grant subsidies across the five counties, on top of the fares, parking, and advertising revenue they also keep.
~$6.2 billion
Existing tax, toll and grant subsidies flowing to Bay Area transit in FY2024-25, every year, before a single dollar of any new tax. Fares add even more to this total.
| Operator | FY2024-25 subsidy | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| VTA (Santa Clara) | $1,707M | Audited ACFR |
| BART | $1,632M | Audited ACFR |
| SFMTA / Muni | $1,422M | Audited statements |
| AC Transit | $594M | Estimate |
| Caltrain (PCJPB) | $363M | Audited ACFR |
| SamTrans | $276M | Audited ACFR |
| Small East Bay operators | $150M | Estimate |
| WETA / SF Bay Ferry | $98M | Estimate |
| Total | ~$6,242M | Point estimate ≈ $6.2B (range $6.0–6.3B) |
The VTA and SFMTA totals are agency-wide and include some non-transit functions, such as local streets and parking; a portion of Santa Clara's 2016 Measure B is dedicated to roads rather than transit. Caltrain's capital figure includes about $60 million in member-agency contributions that also appear in the SamTrans, SFMTA, and VTA totals. Netting those overlaps and adding the operators left off this list, such as Golden Gate Transit's San Francisco service, the Capitol Corridor, and ACE, leaves a point estimate near $6.2 billion.
There is a simpler answer than yes
Voting no does not shut down transit. It forces the state and the agencies to do what they should have done already: pay for service out of the money they are pouring into capital megaprojects and figure out how to operate within current conditions and current funding.
If we vote no, the money already exists
- The state spends roughly a billion dollars a year of cap-and-invest funds on high-speed rail that will never serve the Central Valley. Some of it can go to local transit operations now.
- Pausing the two biggest Bay Area capital projects, BART's Silicon Valley Phase II extension to downtown San Jose and the Portal, Caltrain's downtown extension to the Salesforce Transit Center, frees committed state and local dollars for operations.
- That buys time for planners to figure out how to operate within current conditions and current funding.
Questions voters should ask first
- Why lock in a 14-year tax when driverless services like Waymo are already reshaping how people get around?
- Why not redirect high-speed rail and megaproject funding to operations before raising the sales tax?
- Why has there been no binding commitment to merge agencies, cut administrative overhead, or rein in compensation?
- Why should the highest-sales-tax region in California raise rates again, to over 11 percent in some cities?
Take action
We are organizing the opposition across all five counties and we need help.
Display a lawn sign
Put your opposition where neighbors will see it. Sign up now to reserve a "No on the Transit Tax" lawn sign. Signs will be available starting in August.
Write op-eds and letters
Submit opinion pieces and letters to the editor in local outlets across the five counties.
Present and share
Bring the facts to civic, professional, and neighborhood meetings, and share new research with the group.
Join the campaign
To reserve a lawn sign, contribute research, or volunteer across the five counties, sign up here and we will be in touch.